Authors

Affiliations

1The middle central Regional Hydro-Meteorological Center

2The northern Red river delta Regional Hydro-Meteorological Center

3Sai Gon University

Abstracts

The paper presents the verification of capacity of heavy rainfall forecast IFS model by using the dataset of 75 automatic rain gauges collected of 59 heavy rainfall events of 2011-2018 rainfall seasons. The verification results based on ME, MAE, RMSE, R, BIAS, POD, FAR and ETS indices shown that the heavy rain forecast of IFS has good skill in forecast range of 1-3 days ahead. In addition, rainfall forecast of IFS model is over-estimated at small and medium rainfall thresholds and under-estimated in large and extreme large rainfall thresholds. The extreme rainfall forecast predictability of IFS model is good in some heavy rainfall events that caused by large-scale weather patterns. 

Keywords

Cite this paper

Le Viet Xe, Vo Van Hoa, Le Thai Son (2019), A verification of heavy rainfall evens forecast skill of IFS model at the Middle Central of Vietnam. Vietnam Journal of Hydrometeorology, 3, 48-55.

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