Authors

Affiliations

Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, 8 Hoang Quoc Viet Street, Nghia Do, Cau Giay District, Ha Noi; phuong.dongdat@gmail.com; truyentpt@igp.vast.vn; nguyenhieu200993@gmail.com

Graduate University of Science and Technology, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology; phuong.dongdat@gmail.com; truyentpt@igp.vast.vn

Ho Chi Minh City Institute of Resource Geography, 01 Mac Dinh Chi Street, Ben Nghe Ward, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City; vthquyen@hcmig.vast.vn

South Vietnam Geological Mapping Division, 200 Ly Chinh Thang, Ward 9, District 3, Ho Chi Minh City; dovalinh@gmail.com; vutrongtan@gmail.com

*Corresponding author: phuong.dongdat@gmail.com; truyentpt@igp.vast.vn

Abstracts

This paper presents the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) results for Da Nang city.  A regional earthquake catalog was updated until 2021 and comprehensive seismic source zones within 150 km of Da Nang city were used. The PSHA results for Da Nang city are presented in the form of probabilistic seismic hazard maps, depicting peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) with 10%, 5%, 2% and 0,5% probability of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of 475; 975; 2,475 and 9,975 years, respectively, as well as the 5–hertz (0.2 s period) and 1–hertz (1.0 s period) spectral accelerations (SA) maps with 5–percent damping on a uniform firm rock site condition, with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a 2,475 year return period. The results show that, for the whole territory of Da Nang city, for all four return periods, the predicted PGA values correspond to the intensity of VI to VIII degrees according to the MSK–64 scales. As for the SA maps, for the 2,475–year return period, the predicted SA values at 1.0 s period correspond to the intensity of VI, while the predicted SA values at 0.2 s period correspond to the intensity of VIII to IX according to the MSK–64 scales. These probabilistic seismic hazard maps present short–and long–term forecasts of seismic hazards for Danang city.

Keywords

Cite this paper

Phuong, N.H.; Quyen, V.T.H.; Truyen, P.T.; Linh, D.V.; Tan, V.T.; Hieu, N.T. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Da Nang city, Vietnam. VN J. Hydrometeorol. 2022, 13, 64-81. 

References

1. Completed results of the 2019 Vietnam population and housing census. Statistical publishing house, 2020.

2. Prime Minister of Vietnam. The Decision No. 18/2021/QD–TTg Regulation on forecasting, warning, communication of natural disasters and disaster risk levels, April 22, 2021.

3. Cornell, C.A. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 1968, 58(5), 1583–1606.

4. Esteva, L. Bases para la formulación de decisiones de diseño sísmico. Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 1968.

5. Cornell, C.A.; Vanmarcke, E.H. The Major Influences on Seismic Risk. Proceeding of the 4th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Santiago, Chile, 1969.

6. Minh, L.H. Study of the seismotectonic impact to the stability of the Tranh River hydropower plant No. 2, Bac Tra My region, Quang Nam province. Final report of the National scientific research project, Institute of Geophysics, Hanoi, 2016. 

7. Nguyen, H.P.; Pham, T.T.; Nguyen, T.N. Investigation of long–term and short–term seismicity in Vietnam. J. Seismol. 2019, 23, 951–966.

8. Tuan, T.A.; Purnachandra Rao, N.; Gahalaut, K.; Trong, C.D.; Dung, L.V.; Chien, C.; Mallika, K. Evidence that earthquakes have been triggered by reservoir in the Song Tranh 2 region, Vietnam. J. Seismol. 2017, 21, 1131–1143.

9. Duong, N.A. Assessment of seismic hazard for development planning, ensuring the safety of hydropower and irrigation works and cultural relics of Thua Thien–Hue province. Final report of the ĐTL.CN.51/16 independent project, 2020. (in Vietnamese)

10. Phuong, N.H. Assessment of earthquake and tsunami hazards in the Ninh Thuan province for site approval of the NPPs. Final report of the National level project, Institute of Geophysics, Institute of Science and Technology, 2013. (in Vietnamese)

11. Phuong, N.H.; Truyen, P.T. Analysis of earthquake data to assess the stability of the present tectonic regime”, thematic report within the KC09.38/16–20 project “Study of the tectonic characteristics and the impact of the human activities capable of changing the tectonic stress field related to the seismic hazard in the sea area from Tuy Hoa to Vung Tau”, 2020. (in Vietnamese)

12. Linh, D.V. Study of the tectonic characteristics and the impact of the human activities capable of changing the tectonic stress field related to the seismic hazard in the sea area from Tuy Hoa to Vung Tau, Final report of the KC.09.38/16–20 National level project, 2020. (in Vietnamese)

13. Tri, V.T.; Michel, F.; Vuong, V.N.; Hoang, H.B.; Michael, B.W.F.; Tuan, Q.N.; Claude, L.; Tonny, B.; Thomsen, K.T.; Punya, C. Neoproterozoic to Early Triassic tectono–stratigraphic evolution of Indochina and adjacent areas: A review with new data. J. Asian.  Earth. Sci. 2020, 191, 104231.

14. Linh, D.V. History of the Cenozoic tectonic evolution of the Southern Central Vietnam and relationship with earthquakes. Ph.D. thesis in Geology, the Ho Chi Minh city Institute of Technology, 2009. (in Vietnamese)

15. Phuong, N.H.; Truyen, P.T. Analysis of earthquake data to assess the stability of the present tectonic regime”, thematic report within the KC09.38/16–20 project “Study of the tectonic characteristics and the impact of the human activities capable of changing the tectonic stress field related to the seismic hazard in the sea area from Tuy Hoa to Vung Tau”, 2020. (in Vietnamese)

16. Vu, P.N.; Vu, P.N.H.; Binh, N.X. Young Volcanic Eruption (Pliocene-Quaternary) Activities on the Southern continental Shelf of Vietnam (According to Geophysical Data). VN J. Earth Sci. 2008, 30, 289–301.

17. Budnitz, R.J.; Apostolakis, G.; Boore, D.M.; Cluff, L.S.; Coppersmith, K.J.; Cornell, C.A.; Morris, P.A. Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on uncertainty and use of experts. NUREG/CR-6372 UCRL-ID-122160, 1997, 1, pp. 280.

18. Nguyen, H.P.; Pham, T.T. Development of a fault–source model for earthquake hazard assessment in Vietnam. VN J. Earth Sci. 2007, 29, 228–238.

19. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the South Central Vietnam Central Vietnam. VN J. Earth Sci. 2014, 36, 451–461.

20. Phuong, N.H.; Truyen, P.T. Probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Vietnam and the East Vietnam Sea. VN J. Mar. Sci. Technol. 2015, 15(1), 77–90. Doi:10.15625/1859-097/15/1/6083.

21. Phuong, N.H.; Truyen, P.T.; Nam, N.T. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Tranh river hydropower plant No2 site, Quang Nam province. VN J. Earth Sci. 2016, 38(2), 188–201.

22. Keilis–Borok, V.I.; Knopoff, L.; Rotwain, I.M. Burst of aftershocks, long–term precursors of strong earthquakes. Nature 1980, 283, 259–263.

23. Phuong, N.H. Earthquake Hazards in the territory of Vietnam and adjacent seas.  Natural science and technology Publishing house, 2021, pp. 314. (in Vietnamese)

24. Aki, K. Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N = a–bM and its confidence limits. Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. 1965, 43, 237–239.

25. Utsu, T. A Method for Determining the Value of b in a Formula log n = a – bM showing the Magnitude–Frequency Relation for Earthquakes. Geophys. Bull. Hokkaido Univ. 1965, 13, 99–103.

26. Amorese, D. Applying a Change–Point Detection Method on Frequency–Magnitude Distributions. Bull Seismol. Soc. Am. 2007, 97, 1742–1749.

27. Amorese, D.; Rydelek, P.A.; Grasso, J.R. Package “GRTo” – Tools for the Analysis of Gutenberg–Richter Distributions of Earthquake Magnitudes.  2015.  https://cran.r–project.org/package=GRTo.

28.Xuyen, N.D. Study on earthquake prediction and ground motion in Vietnam. Final report of the National level project, Institute of Geophysics, Institute of Science and Technology, 2004. (in Vietnamese)

29. Khoi, L.Q. Verification of the Ground Motion Prediction Models using broadband seismic data collected in Vietnam. Final report of a research project on basical level.  Institute of Geophysics, 2018. (in Vietnamese)

30. Minh, N.D. National Regulation on data of natural conditions used in construction (Draft). Appendix 4 – The earthquake data for QCVN 02:2020/BXD, Institute of Construction Science and Technology, Ministry of Construction, 2020.

31. Akkar, S.; Sand, I.M.A.; Bommer, J.J. Empirical ground–motion models for point– and extended–source crustal earthquake scenarios in Europe and the Middle East.  Bull.  Earthq. Eng. 2014, 12, 359–387.

32. Ordaz, M.; Martinelli, F.; Aguilar, A.; Arboleda, J.; Meletti, C.; Amico, D.; Crisis, V. Program for computing seismic hazard. 2015. Online available: http://www.r-crisis.com/download/binaries/.