1Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate change


This paper studies the characteristics of droughts in Ca Mau and its prediction capabilities. It shows that drought cycle in Ca Mau  annually  occurs with dry season. The most severe droughts occur in January, February and March with the frequency of 90 – 95%. Average duration of drought season is about 4 months which can be longer in few years. Longer duration drought and more severe intensity drought mostly occur in the El-Nino year. In addition, by applying the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) for drought prediction, the results show that the RSM model captures well the inter-annual variation of the SPI index at timescale of 12 months, especially during severe water scarcity periods. Underestimated errors in the predicted SPI value can be bias-corrected for more proper determination of droughts from the RSM output. An important issue of drought prediction is warning of drought intensity during either dry or rainy season. The assessment of long-term water scarcity using the SPI index can provide warning of drought intensity in future.


Cite this paper

Nguyen Van Thang, Mai Van Khiem, Tran Dinh Trong (2018), Study of Droughts in Ca Mau Province: Characteristics and Prediction Capabilities. Vietnam Journal of Hydrometeorology, 01, 11-19.


1. Nguyen, D.N., Nguyen, T.H., 1995. Methodology for preparing climate information for national economic sectors. Scientific and Technical Publisher.

2. Nguyen, D.N., Nguyen, T.H., 2003. Drought and desertification in Vietnam. Scientific and Technical Publisher.

3. Nguyen, T. H., 1995. Drought distribution and its impacts. Vietnam Institute of Meteorology. Hydrology and Climate Change.

4. Hoang, D. C., Nguyen, T. H., 2012. Lecture on statistic in climatology. Natural Science and Technology Publisher.

5. Juang, H.H., Kanamitsu, M., 1994. The NMC nested regional spectral model. Mon Weather Rev. 122: 3-26.

6. Juang H. H., Hong, S., Kanamitsu M., 1997. The NCEP regional spectral model: an update. Bull Am Meteor Soc. 78: 2125-2143.

7. Nguyen, V.T., et. al., 2007. Research and develop a technology for drought prediction and early warning in Viet Nam. Final report of the Ministerial level project.

8. Nguyen, V. T., et. al., 2014. Study on drought forecast and warning system in Viet Nam in period of 3 months. Final report of the National project KC.08/11-15. 

9. McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scale. Preprints, Eighth Conf. on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 179 - 184.

10. Saha, S., Coauthors, 2006. The NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 19, 3483- 3517.

11. Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Wu X, Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P., Pan H-L., Behringer, D., Hou Y-T., Chuang H-y, Iredell M., Ek M, Meng J., Yang R., Van den Dool H, Zhang Q., Wang W., Chen M., 2014. The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. Journal of Climate. 27: 2185- 2208.

12. Tran, T.H., et al, 2008. Building the maps of droughts and the water deficit level of the South of the Middle and the Highland. Final report of the Ministerial level project.

13. Vu, V.Th., et al, 2016. Research thermodynamic mechanism causing heavy rain and possibility of forecasting heavy rains in the South and South Highlands due to South West monsoon – tropical cyclone interaction in the EAST Sea. Final report of the Ministerial level project.