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This paper studies the characteristics of droughts in Ca Mau and its prediction capabilities. It shows that drought cycle in Ca Mau annually occurs with dry season. The most severe droughts occur in January, February and March with the frequency of 90 – 95%. Average duration of drought season is about 4 months which can be longer in few years. Longer duration drought and more severe intensity drought mostly occur in the El-Nino year. In addition, by applying the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) for drought prediction, the results show that the RSM model captures well the inter-annual variation of the SPI index at timescale of 12 months, especially during severe water scarcity periods. Underestimated errors in the predicted SPI value can be bias-corrected for more proper determination of droughts from the RSM output. An important issue of drought prediction is warning of drought intensity during either dry or rainy season. The assessment of long-term water scarcity using the SPI index can provide warning of drought intensity in future.
Cite this paper
Nguyen Van Thang, Mai Van Khiem, Tran Dinh Trong (2018), Study of Droughts in Ca Mau Province: Characteristics and Prediction Capabilities. Vietnam Journal of Hydrometeorology, 01, 11-19.
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