1Department of Climate Change, MONRE
2Science and Technology, MONRE
This article presents the results of detecting the trend of drought conditions in the South-Central region based on the past observation and bias-correction rainfall projections. The past observation of daily rainfall is updated up to 2017 and collected from Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration. The bias-correction daily rainfall projections are collected from Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate change (IMHEN) during the periods of 1986 - 2005, 2016 - 2035, 2036 - 2065 and 2080 - 2099 according to both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and minimum value of SPI (SPI_min) are used to define the mean drought condition and the most extreme drought condition. The past trend of drought conditions is found that the decreasing trends of mean drought condition and increasing trends of the severity level. The future trend of drought conditions according to both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is found that it is similar to the past trend. Where, the mean drought condition is generally found by slight decreasing trends. However, the most extreme of drought condition is significantly found by increasing trends of drought at shorter timescales (1- and 3-month time scales).
Cite this paper
Mai Kim Lien, Tran Duy Hien (2018), A Study on Drought in the South-Central Region: Detection from the Observation and the Bias-Correction Rainfall Projections of National Climate Change Scenarios. Vietnam Journal of Hydrometeorology, 01, 20-29.
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