Authors

Duc Tran Anh 1,2* , Mai Khanh Hung 1,3 , Quan Dang Dinh 1 , Trang Do Thuy 1 , Nam Hoang Gia 1 , Lars R. Hole 4 , Tien Du Duc 1

Affiliations

1 Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, 8 Phao Dai Lang Str.,
Hanoi 100000, Vietnam; taduc3@monre.gov.vn; mkhung@monre.gov.vn; ddquan@monre.gov.vn; dttrang2@monre.gov.vn; hgnam@monre.gov.vn

2 Vietnam Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; taduc3@monre.gov.vn

3 Institute of Engineering Innovation, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan

4 Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 5007 Bergen, Norway; lrh@met.no

*Corresponding author: taduc3@monre.gov.vn; Tel.: +84–916106558

Abstracts

The research employs the Quantile Mapping (QM) post-processing method to improve the skill forecasts of the deterministic forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The selected research areais Central Vietnam, and the analysis utilizes observation data from 41 stations and 10-year ECMWF-IFS data from 2013 to 2022, with a lead time of up to 10 days for the QM applications. The findings indicate that the QM facilitates enhanced forecasting skills in the IFS model for all lead times up to 10 days, exhibiting varying magnitudes based on the specific lead time and rainfall thresholds. Notably, the impact of QM is found to be negligible for heavy rainfall events, with the skill limit being determined 

Keywords

Quantile Mapping; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS); Skill precipitation forecast.

Cite this paper

Duc, T.A.; Hung, M.K.; Quan, D.D.; Trang, D.T.; Nam, H.G.; Lars, R.H.; Tien, D.D. Improving skill precipitation forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) model by using the quantile mapping method for Central Vietnam. J. Hydro-Meteorol. 2025, 22, 71–81.

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