Authors

Hoa Mai Thi Phan 1 , Hanh Hong Tran 2* , Nguyen Quoc Phi 2 , Hoa Thanh Thi Pham 2

Affiliations

1 Graduate University of Science and Technology, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology; phanthimaihoa@humg.edu.vn

2 Hanoi University of Mining and Geology; tranhonghanh@humg.edu.vn; nguyenquocphi@humg.edu.vn; phamthithanhhoa@humg.edu.vn

*Corresponding author: tranhonghanh@humg.edu.vn; Tel.: +84–988150099

Abstracts

Ha Quang District, situated within the Non Nuoc Cao Bang Geopark, is an area of significant geological, ecological, and cultural value and has been recognized by UNESCO as a member of the Global Geoparks Network. However, the region is also prone to various geological hazards, with landslides representing a primary concern. This study aims to apply the Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory and Certainty Factor (CF) to analyze landslide susceptibility in the study area using a Geographic Information System (GIS). A total of 196 landslides were documented using historical records, Google Earth imagery, and field surveys to create a comprehensive inventory map. Seven conditioning factors, including slope, Topographic Roughness Index (TRI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Stream Power Index (SPI), Mass Balance Index (MBI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and rainfall, were integrated as thematic layers for analysis. The belief map, representing the most reliable integrated landslide susceptibility model, was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and area under the curve (AUC). The evaluation revealed that the model achieved an overall accuracy of 74.5%. To compare performance, the Certainty Factor (CF) model was also applied, obtaining a success rate of 67%. The results indicated that the Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory demonstrated superior predictive capability over the CF model. It addresses a critical gap in landslide susceptibility research by improving predictive accuracy compared to traditional GIS, particularly in handling uncertainty through the Dempster-Shafer theory. These findings are crucial for developing effective landslide risk mitigation strategies and optimizing land-use planning to enhance infrastructure protection and sustainable development.

Keywords

Dempster-Shafer; Certainy factors; Topographic indices; Landslide susceptibility; Ha Quang.

Cite this paper

Hoa, P.T.M.; Hanh, T.H.; Phi, N.Q.; Hoa, P.T.T. Integrating Dempster-Shafer theory, certainty factors and topographic indices for landslide susceptibility analysis in Ha Quang district, Cao Bang province. J. Hydro-Meteorol. 2025, 23, 72-87.

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